How Akuo's Power Forecast Chases the Price Ceiling at Santas

Akuo Energy's Santas plant already runs forecasts into its offtakers through Enlitia's data hub. Power Forecast is the next layer: a forecast that adjusts to what is actually happening on the plant — clipping-aware availability, a recomputed forecast, and a second provider with a selector that chases the price ceiling interval by interval.

Four building blocks

• Real availability - clipping-aware, not a flat multiplier; the ceiling matters exactly when it is worth the most.
• Recomputed forecast - regenerated on real availability, not rescaled from someone else's curve.
• A second opinion - no provider wins every regime; the selector picks interval by interval.
• Santas, simulated - what it is worth on twelve months of real prices and real production.

Why the capture rate matters

On twelve months of OMIE day-ahead and ESIOS imbalance prices, Santas' capture rate sits at about 51% of the baseload average — because it produces when Iberian solar is saturating the market. Knowing when a megawatt is worth something is not a reporting nicety; it is most of the P&L.

Selector upside vs incumbent alone

With two provider error series at realistic accuracy, a selector that captures 25-40% of the perfect-selection ceiling cuts imbalance cost versus the incumbent alone by roughly +EUR 44k to +EUR 70k per year at Santas. The full ceiling (perfect selection between the two) sits at about +EUR 174.6k/yr.

Figures on this page are illustrative, from a Santas simulation on real prices with modelled generation.

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